国内外PMP/PMF的发展和实践   总被引：8，自引：3，他引：8  

王国安 《水文》2004,24(5):5-9,47

对20世纪80年代以来PMP／PMF在国内外的发展和实践情况作了简要的介绍和评论。内容包括PMP／PMF定义、估算方法、成果合理性检查和概率。PMP估算方法包括概化估算法、当地暴雨放大、暴雨移置、暴雨组合、推理模式和统计估算法。PMF估算着重介绍了由PMP转化为PMF的产流和汇流特点，以及目前在南非和法语非洲国家广泛应用的经验公式。  相似文献   

一次强风暴的垂直环境特征数值模拟分析   总被引：4，自引：2，他引：4  

陈力强  周小珊  杨森 《气象》2004,30(9):3-8

应用MM 5模式对东北冷涡诱发的 2 0 0 2年 7月 1 2日强风暴进行了数值模拟 ,较成功地模拟出中尺度强对流风暴。发现冷涡后部中层干冷空气绝热下沉是东北冷涡 70 0hPa附近干暖盖形成和维持的重要机制 ,而低层暖湿气流爬升及干暖盖的抑制作用是东北冷涡强对流不稳定能量积累的重要机制。风暴发生前持续的低层西南风到中层西北风的风垂直切变产生的差动平流 ,加剧了层结不稳定 ,而风暴临近风垂直切变方向的快速逆转使热成风不平衡 ,必须通过激发垂直环流以适应其变化 ,对风暴发展有重要作用。  相似文献   

沈阳地区沙尘天气分析   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5       下载免费PDF全文

路爽  张菁  孙凤华 《气象科学》2004,24(1):112-119

本文总结了沈阳地区沙尘天气的时空分布特点，从天气条件、地表自然条件(沙源)两方面分析了沈阳地区沙尘天气的成因，总结了沈阳地区预报沙尘天气时应参考的5个因素。  相似文献   

牡丹江市大--暴雨中期预报方法研究     

邢丽燕  车正浩  李莉 《黑龙江气象》2004,(3):4-5

应用MICAPS平台所提供的数值预报产品，分析影响牡丹江市大一暴雨的天气系统，并找出关键区域及预报指标，在实际预报中取得了很好的效果。  相似文献   

Physicochemistry and Mineralogy of Storm Dust and Dust Sediment in Northern China   总被引：2，自引：0，他引：2  

LIU Wei  FENG Qi  WANG Tao  ZHANG Yanwu  SHI Jianhua 《大气科学进展》2004,21(5):775-783

Dust sediments collected from 1995 to 1998 in Beijing, Dunhuang, Inner Mongolia, Kashi, the Kunlun Mountains, Lanzhou, Ningxia, the Taklimakan Desert, and Xi‘an, China, were characterized in terms of their physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties. Most aerosols and dust analysed ranged in texture from silty clay to clay loam. Their median particle diameters (Mds) generally ranged between 5 to 63μm,coinciding with those of loess from central China and the finest sand from northwestern China. The dust sediments were characterized by a predominance of SiO2 and Al2O3, followed by K2O. Their SiO2/Al2O3and K2O/SiO2 molar ratios ranged from 5.17 to 8.43 and from 0.009 to 0.0368, respectively. The mass concentration spectrum during a dust storm showed a single peak, rather than the triple peak generally observed under clear sky conditions. The dominant minerals were chlorite, illite, calcite, and dolomite.These physical, chemical, and mineralogical properties were consistent with those of aeolian soils and loess in western and central China. The results suggest that aerosols and fine-gained fractions of dust sediments collected in northern China are mainly composed of soil material transported from the arid and semiarid regions of China and Mongolia by prevailing winds. The rate of deposition and properties of dust falling on eastern China were strongly influenced by meteorological conditions, season, latitude, longitude, and altitude of the sampling sites.  相似文献   

2002年我国沙尘暴天气特征分析   总被引：5，自引：1，他引：5  

牛若芸  薛建军  周自江 《南京气象学院学报》2004,27(2):178-184

利用逐日8个时次地面天气报告资料，分析了2002年全国沙尘暴的时空分布特征。结果表明：2002年出现的12次沙尘暴过程以3月18～22日的强沙尘暴过程影响范围最广、强度最强；我国北方地区浑善达克沙地及其周边地区的沙尘暴日数最多。另外，2002年我国沙尘暴高频期集中、早春多于晚春。主要原因是前期北方持续气温偏高、降水偏少，3—4月上中旬影响我国的冷空气十分频繁且强度较强，4月下旬—5月上旬我国北方地区出现了几次较大范围降水，5月中下旬影响我国的冷空气势力较弱且位置偏东。  相似文献   

舟山港台风风暴潮的分析及预报          下载免费PDF全文

项素清 《气象》2004,30(3):35-38

利用 1 956～ 2 0 0 0年舟山市定海验潮站潮位观测资料 ,对历年影响舟山的台风风暴潮灾进行了全面的统计分析。将台风按路径分型 ,分析了不同路径台风风暴潮的特点 ,并用基于PRESS准则的逐步回归方法 ,建立了不同路径风暴潮的预报模型。  相似文献   

Maximum Storm Surge Curve Due to Global Warming for the European North Sea Region During the 20th–21st Century     

Gönnert  Gabriele 《Natural Hazards》2004,32(2):211-218

Computations of storm surges during the 20th century needs to incorporate globalwarming of about 0.6 °C ± 0.2 °C (IPCC, 2001). In order totake this global warming into consideration, the development of all storm surgesoccurred during the 20th century have been analysed. The study comprises determiningto what degree the storm surge curve and storm surge level depend on each other. Thisfact can be used to calculate a maximum storm surge curve and each single storm surgeevent can be summarised. The tendency of the surge and wind parameters do not showthat this maximum storm surge levels in the 20th century will occur earlier than predicted, however, the global warming of 0.6 °C will extend the duration of the mean storm surge curve.  相似文献   

Modes of occurrence of mercury and other trace elements in coals from the warrior field, Black Warrior Basin, Northwestern Alabama   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

S.F Diehl  M.B Goldhaber  J.R Hatch   《International Journal of Coal Geology》2004,59(3-4):193-208

The mineralogic residence and abundance of trace metals is an important environmental issue. Data from the USGS coal quality database show that potentially toxic elements, including Hg, As, Mo, Se, Cu, and Tl are enriched in a subset of coal samples in the Black Warrior Basin of Alabama, USA. Although the coal as-mined typically is low in these elements, localized enrichments occur in high-pyrite coals and near faults. Microscopic analyses demonstrate that the residence of these elements is dominantly in a late-stage pyrite associated with structurally disrupted coal. Further, our data suggest addition of Hg to the coal matrix as well. The source of these trace elements was hydrothermal fluids driven into the Black Warrior Basin by Alleghanian age tectonism.  相似文献   

U–Pb ages of Neoarchean granitoids from the Black Hills, South Dakota, USA: implications for crustal evolution in the Archean Wyoming province     

James A. McCombs  Peter S. Dahl  Michael A. Hamilton 《Precambrian Research》2004,130(1-4):161-184

Zircons in basement rocks from the eastern Wyoming province (Black Hills, South Dakota, USA) have been analyzed by ion microprobe (SHRIMP) in order to determine precise ages of Archean tectonomagmatic events. In the northern Black Hills (NBH) near Nemo, Phanerozoic and Proterozoic (meta)sedimentary rocks are nonconformably underlain by Archean biotite–feldspar gneiss (BFG) and Little Elk gneissic granite (LEG), both of which intrude older schists. The Archean granitoid gneisses exhibit a pervasive NW–SE-trending fabric, whereas an earlier NE–SW-trending fabric occurs sporadically only in the BFG, which is intruded by the somewhat younger LEG. Zircon crystals obtained from the LEG and BFG exhibit double terminations, oscillatory zoning, and Th/U ratios of 0.6±0.3—thereby confirming a magmatic origin for both lithologies. In situ analysis of the most U–Pb concordant domains yields equivalent ²⁰⁷Pb/²⁰⁶Pb ages (upper intercept, U–Pb concordia) of 2559±6 and 2563±6 Ma (both ±2σ) for the LEG and BFG, respectively, which constrains a late Neoarchean age for sequential pulses of magmatism in the NBH. Unzoned (in BSE) patches of 2560 Ma zircon commonly truncate coeval zonation in the same crystals with no change in Th/U ratio, suggesting that deuteric, fluid-assisted recrystallization accompanied post-magmatic cooling. A xenocrystic core of magmatic zircon observed in one LEG zircon yields a concordant age of 2894±6 Ma (±2σ). This xenocryst represents the oldest crustal material reported thus far in the Black Hills. Whether this older zircon originated as unmelted residue of 2900 Ma crust that potentially underlies the Black Hills or as detritus derived from 2900 Ma crustal sources in the Wyoming province cannot be discerned. In the southern Black Hills (SBH), the peraluminous granite at Bear Mountain (BMG) of previously unknown age intrudes biotite–plagioclase schist. Zircon crystals from the BMG are highly metamict and altered, but locally preserve small domains suitable for in situ analysis. A U–Pb concordia upper intercept age of 2596±11 Ma (±2σ) obtained for zircon confirms both the late Neoarchean magmatic age of the BMG and a minimum age for the schist it intrudes. Taken together, these data indicate that the Neoarchean basement granitoids were emplaced at 2590–2600 Ma (SBH) and 2560 Ma (NBH), most likely in response to subduction associated with plate convergence (final assembly of supercontinent Kenorland?). In contrast, thin rims present on some LEG–BFG zircons exhibit strong U–Pb discordance, high common Pb, and low Th/U ratios—suggesting growth or modification under hydrothermal conditions, as previously suggested for similar zircons from SE Wyoming. The LEG–BFG zircon rims yield a nominal upper intercept date of 1940–2180 Ma, which may represent a composite of multiple rifting events known to have affected the Nemo area between 2480 and 1960 Ma. Together, these observations confirm the existence of a Paleoproterozoic rift margin along the easternmost Wyoming craton. Moreover, the 2480–1960 Ma time frame inferred for rifting in the Black Hills (Nemo area) corresponds closely to a 2450–2100 Ma time frame previously inferred for the fragmentation of supercontinent Kenorland.  相似文献